Does the idea of the Army trying to predict who will become violent scare or reassure you?

1LT William Clardy — Wed, 04 Nov 2015 21:06:29 -0500

Apparently, the Army is attempting to use "big data" data-mining techniques in an attempt to identify who is most likely to become violent.

Is anybody here troubled about the potential adverse impact this could have on a soldiers' career, especially if the prediction is based upon spotty data analysis?

https://gcn.com/Blogs/Emerging-Tech/2015/11/Big-data-violence-prediction.aspx?s=gcntech_041115&p=1

Can big data predict violent behavior? -- GCN

A team from Harvard Medical School is applying machine learning models to U.S. Army personnel datasets to predict violent behavior.

Response by SSG Michael Scott made Nov 4 at 2015 9:09 PM

SSG Michael Scott — Wed, 04 Nov 2015 21:09:10 -0500

Yes, this is bad karma for soldiers.

Response by Capt Richard I P. made Nov 4 at 2015 9:10 PM

Capt Richard I P. — Wed, 04 Nov 2015 21:10:20 -0500

Aren't we paid to become violent?

Response by CPT Private RallyPoint Member made Nov 4 at 2015 9:16 PM

CPT Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 04 Nov 2015 21:16:50 -0500

1LT William Clardy My reply here would be the same as my reply in this thread.
https://www.rallypoint.com/answers/pre-crime-tool-soldier-social-experimentation-what-are-your-thoughts?urlhash=1034452

Pre-Crime Tool: Soldier Social Experimentation. What Are Your Thoughts? | RallyPoint

A new Minority Report" tool is being created that will be rolled out using the military as a social experiment lab. Good idea or not?http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-predicting-violent-crime-by-army-soldiers-20151006-story.html[~313343:SFC Mark Merino] [~541687:TSgt Hunter Logan] [~362072:SMSgt Minister Gerald A. Thomas] [~196651:Capt Jeff Schwager] [~173481:CMSgt Mark Schubert]

Response by CPT Private RallyPoint Member made Nov 4 at 2015 10:03 PM

CPT Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 04 Nov 2015 22:03:36 -0500

If "we" weren't violent...would we go to war?

Response by CSM Michael J. Uhlig made Nov 4 at 2015 10:13 PM

CSM Michael J. Uhlig — Wed, 04 Nov 2015 22:13:57 -0500

Same thing as when we return from down range.....we know how to answer the Doc so we can get out of the gym and go have a cold one.....

Response by CMSgt James Nolan made Nov 5 at 2015 1:48 AM

CMSgt James Nolan — Thu, 05 Nov 2015 01:48:19 -0500

1LT William Clardy Correct me if I am wrong, but the military needs people capable of violence to serve does it not?
Coming off of my last deployment, we had to stop by the Medical Group for out-processing. So, I am sitting there getting questioned by a 22-23 year old medical technician and she asks me "Do you ever think about hurting anyone?" So I respond "Every day". She is has this look on her face like I just crushed a puppy, and I tell her that I am a First Sergeant, and I think about it all the time. Then, I say, "Was that my outside voice?" The Doc who is at his desk behind her, literally fell out of his chair laughing, she is in disbelief, and I have to assure her that I have done this before, and no, I don't want to hurt anyone....
If the system works as well as all of that, we are doomed LOL.
Seriously though, question: Just because bad things happen, and people come from rough backgrounds, do we really want to call them in to see the Doc, because a program has decided they are more likely to get violent? I am all for people not wigging out and going bananas, but not for a computer to isolate troops based on probability equations.
"Sergeant, the computer says you need to go see the Doc...." Sounds kind of big brother-ish...

Response by Capt Seid Waddell made Nov 5 at 2015 2:36 AM

Capt Seid Waddell — Thu, 05 Nov 2015 02:36:29 -0500

Sounds like the "Minority Report".

Response by Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS made Nov 5 at 2015 6:04 AM

Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS — Thu, 05 Nov 2015 06:04:19 -0500

You can use statistical data to determine trends in groups, but not in for individuals. Any statistician can say 3 cars in 100 will have an accident on Elm street between August and September, but they can't tell you WHICH 3 cars. Same applies to people.

Response by LT Private RallyPoint Member made Nov 5 at 2015 7:49 AM

LT Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 05 Nov 2015 07:49:10 -0500

Looks like yet another fancy way to spend $$.

Response by SGM Mikel Dawson made Nov 5 at 2015 8:46 AM

SGM Mikel Dawson — Thu, 05 Nov 2015 08:46:49 -0500

Seems to me this is like predicting the weather.

Response by SrA Matthew Knight made Nov 5 at 2015 10:36 AM

SrA Matthew Knight — Thu, 05 Nov 2015 10:36:41 -0500

Sounds like Operation Insight which was the main bad guy plot point from Captain America: The Winter Soldier. So long as it isn't used to arrest or punish people who haven't even done anything wrong just because the computer thinks they will then it shouldn't be a problem though.

Response by SPC Private RallyPoint Member made Nov 5 at 2015 10:50 AM

SPC Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 05 Nov 2015 10:50:21 -0500

Scares the shit out of me. Many of us in the military are going to come up as high risk on that. Just walk around Sand Hill. What other profession out there has "in training employees" shouting kill every other step?

Response by MSG Brad Sand made Nov 5 at 2015 10:55 AM

MSG Brad Sand — Thu, 05 Nov 2015 10:55:14 -0500

IF they can predict when soldiers are going to be violent...considering that is what we train them to do...why not try using it trying to figure out who is a threat to this country? Oh, they have tried that and it doesn't work nearly as effectively as we need? Okay, there is your answer.

Response by SSG Todd Halverson made Nov 5 at 2015 2:36 PM

SSG Todd Halverson — Thu, 05 Nov 2015 14:36:57 -0500

Seems like a waste of time and money to study "Big Data". Just ask anyone who is / has served and we would all answer yes to likely becoming violent. The only thing is, we were trained on how to control it and when to use it. Granted there are those who have returned from combat tours and could not find their off button again. There is no way anyone could predict who will and will not be affected by combat and unable to find their off switch.
My real question is why would they want to know? Do they want to kick them out of the Military, maybe set up some totally unrealistic training classes, or send them in for medical evaluations. Big Brother getting ready to be put into play.

Response by SSG Warren Swan made Nov 6 at 2015 10:15 AM

SSG Warren Swan — Fri, 06 Nov 2015 10:15:45 -0500

"The team created a consolidated dataset that pulled data from many different military datasets, including crime data, deployment data and the soldiers’ electronic medical records"....who signed the release for the medical records, and FOIA doesn't give access to med files (I could be wrong). This is wrong. Use a formula to get an "idea" of who is and who isn't susceptible to violence? So if this gives someone who would resemble PFC Snuffy in a data sense, we look at PFC Snuffy, but it turned out to be SSG Snuffy who's the real danger, but didn't fit the "mold" that this set forth what good did this "modeling" and passive profiling do for anyone?

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Nov 7 at 2015 7:50 AM

SFC Private RallyPoint Member — Sat, 07 Nov 2015 07:50:25 -0500

scare , and wow they have that kinda technology ?

Response by MAJ Ken Landgren made Nov 7 at 2015 11:38 AM

MAJ Ken Landgren — Sat, 07 Nov 2015 11:38:53 -0500

We don't need to prosecute or treat ill those based on a prediction.

Response by SSG Private RallyPoint Member made Nov 9 at 2015 7:48 AM

SSG Private RallyPoint Member — Mon, 09 Nov 2015 07:48:22 -0500

Applied mathematics state that 98% of all statistical data is made up, so fret not! LOL!

Response by SGT Jamison Calloway made Nov 9 at 2015 10:14 AM

SGT Jamison Calloway — Mon, 09 Nov 2015 10:14:34 -0500

Flirting with danger. Another way to undermine soldiers who you have a problem with.

Response by SSgt Alex Robinson made Nov 11 at 2015 6:45 AM

SSgt Alex Robinson — Wed, 11 Nov 2015 06:45:27 -0500

The reality is predictions don't always come true. They can use theoretical models to make these glasses by the end of the day just like the weather you never know.

Response by CW5 Private RallyPoint Member made Nov 11 at 2015 8:23 AM

CW5 Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 11 Nov 2015 08:23:15 -0500

Yeah, good luck with that. Psychs already have different ways of soliciting diagnoses from patients to the point that you can have a blind study on this and maybe achieve a 65% success. The remaining percentage, and the action/counseling/etc taken on that remainder, would create an outrage.

Response by SFC Tim Drye made Nov 11 at 2015 8:51 PM

SFC Tim Drye — Wed, 11 Nov 2015 20:51:24 -0500

This is utterly ridiculous. Based on input anyone could easily viewed as violent. This information could be used several different ways that could interfere with a persons career. There's no place for this in our military that is open to interpretation