Do you think Donald Trump is guaranteed to be the Republican Nominee in 2020?

2018-02-27T15:10:43-05:00

https://www.quora.com/Has-an-incumbent-president-ever-lost-in-a-primary-election

Whether one likes or Dislikes President Trump, he is definitely a polarizing figure. I was reading about him appointing Brad Parscale to start prep work for his 2020 campaign, and thought about whether that may be premature.
With Donald Trump already starting to think about his 2020 campaign, this is a valid question even if it is as previously stated, premature.

Has an incumbent president ever lost in a primary election? - Quora

Strictly speaking, the answer is: No, there has never been an incumbent president running for re-election who has lost to a primary challenger – although Ford came very close to losing to Reagan in 1976, and Kennedy gave Carter a bruising fight in 1980. Johnson kind of side-stepped the issue in 1968 by withdrawing after (winning) the first primary, but it’s plausible that he could have lost.

Response by SSG Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 27 at 2018 3:16 PM

2018-02-27T15:16:05-05:00

If he is still in office, Republicans will hold their nose and nominate him. I suspect they would find another 4 years of Trump is preferable to splitting the party.

Response by SSG Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 27 at 2018 3:17 PM

2018-02-27T15:17:09-05:00

I think that both sides are probably going to do everything in their power to try and unseat him.

Response by SSG Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 27 at 2018 3:17 PM

2018-02-27T15:17:29-05:00

I think he will be the nominee in 2020, but at the same time, I think the Russia investigation and whatever else events that may happen in the next two years could possibly derail him.

Response by Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS made Feb 27 at 2018 3:18 PM

2018-02-27T15:18:21-05:00

Food for thought:

https://www.npr.org/sections/politicaljunkie/2009/07/a_president_denied_renominatio.html

We must always remember the Incumbent and Defenders advantage.

Anyone who challenges President Trump must accomplish 2 things while he only has to accomplish 1. Specifically, they must prove they a viable candidate (capable of winning the election perceptually), and that they are better than the person who has already done that in reality.

That said, the President is 71 years old, has three years left in current term, and the average life-expectancy for his demographic is about 77~.

When Has A President Been Denied His Party's Nomination?

Which presidents were denied the nomination of their party for another term?

Response by MAJ Bryan Zeski made Feb 27 at 2018 3:23 PM

2018-02-27T15:23:53-05:00

1. There is no "STARTING TO THINK" about his campaign. He already filed for it and hasn't stopped campaigning since.
2. IF he is still in office, I think he'll be the Republican nominee. The IF is in relation to all of the investigations that are still ongoing that he could get caught up in.

Response by SPC David Willis made Feb 27 at 2018 3:28 PM

2018-02-27T15:28:35-05:00

This may be the first time a political party tries to primary their incumbent but I don't have any evidence to support that so they may not. I will say that if the elections were being held in a few months I believe the republican party would try hard to get him out because his chances of winning would be incredibly low at the moment, that may turn around in a couple years though who knows? He may also just decide not to run. Who's to say he doesn't take the money and run with it, maybe parlay his presidency into another business endeavor. Its interesting because literally no one can guess what he'll do.

Response by LTC Stephen C. made Feb 27 at 2018 3:32 PM

2018-02-27T15:32:10-05:00

PO3 Steven Sherrill, as Luther Whitney (Clint Eastwood) stated to Detective Seth Frank (Ed Harris) in the movie Absolute Power, "Tomorrow is promised to no one." I've learned that many verses in the Bible are similar in theme, but the actual quote is Walter Payton's, the now deceased Chicago Bears halfback.

Response by MSG Dan Castaneda made Feb 27 at 2018 3:43 PM

2018-02-27T15:43:48-05:00

Yes. I will be voting for him again.

Response by PO1 Don Gulizia made Feb 27 at 2018 3:45 PM

2018-02-27T15:45:07-05:00

Too early to tell. He says a lot of dumb stuff and has a lot of non-establishment politicians working for him. There's a lot of time for major screw ups. However, if he can get a bipartisian "gun" bill done, DACA resolved, and more jobs / more money in our pockets, he may be tough to beat.

Response by MAJ Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 27 at 2018 3:51 PM

2018-02-27T15:51:41-05:00

With every day that passes I find fewer and fewer guarantees in this life. So no, it certainly isn't guaranteed.

Response by PFC Donnie Harold Harris made Feb 27 at 2018 3:55 PM

2018-02-27T15:55:34-05:00

One can only hope at this stage of the game.

Response by SPC Anthony Schepis made Feb 27 at 2018 4:22 PM

2018-02-27T16:22:57-05:00

Most likely

Response by Capt Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 27 at 2018 4:59 PM

2018-02-27T16:59:39-05:00

He is as sure as HRC and the media were sure she would win the 2016 election.

Response by SSG Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 27 at 2018 5:02 PM

2018-02-27T17:02:26-05:00

The incumbent typically gets the nomination when running for reelection; I don't think I've ever seen it *not* happen. Will he win reelection? I sincerely doubt it; too many of his own (former) supporters are already beginning to regret voting for him. As long as the Democrats don't fuck up and put yet *another* candidate out with zero electability, I'd say Trump is gonna be a one-term president. If that.

Response by SGT Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 27 at 2018 5:16 PM

2018-02-27T17:16:23-05:00

The GOP will run Trump, because GOP.

One or more centrist independents will get a large following as an alternative to both the far-left, San Francisco-esque Democrat (aka Socialist) party and to the Twitter-tantrums of the Trump administration.

I'm hoping for an earth-crossing asteroid.

Response by CPT Jack Durish made Feb 27 at 2018 5:46 PM

2018-02-27T17:46:32-05:00

Nothing is certain, especially not in this political climate

Response by LTC Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 27 at 2018 5:49 PM

2018-02-27T17:49:39-05:00

I don't think anybody is guaranteed to be anything. Only a little more than 25% of the water has flowed under the bridge and there is still a little less than 75% yet to flow. How it flows and what it brings can reshape the political scene any number of times between now and November 2020. I will say that if the economy continues to grow, terrorism is held in check, and Trump gets somewhere with the issues associated with immigration and illegal aliens it will be difficult for any Republican that I am aware of to unseat him. Beond that, I'm not real interested in prognosticating this early in his term.

Response by SMSgt Thor Merich made Feb 27 at 2018 6:12 PM

2018-02-27T18:12:37-05:00

If he runs for a second term, I think he will get the nomination. But I don’t see him running again. It’s cramping his style too much.

Response by SFC Christopher Taggart made Feb 27 at 2018 6:26 PM

2018-02-27T18:26:15-05:00

PO3 Sherrill, posting a "hot topic" does not make friends in "high places." Is that "PC" enough or what?

Response by SPC Erich Guenther made Feb 28 at 2018 1:59 AM

2018-02-28T01:59:19-05:00

Based on how events that unfolded after Reagan was elected, took Democrats three Presidential election cycles to recover and figure out what their counter approach should be. I see that same exact thing happening again this time. So it will just be Republicans running for the next two cycles that have any chance. Given the way Trump dominated the stage last time I don't think he will have a lot of Republican competition.

Response by PO1 Tony Holland made Feb 28 at 2018 4:08 AM

2018-02-28T04:08:27-05:00

Can inmates stand for nomination? Mr. Mueller, care to comment?

Response by SSG Warren Swan made Feb 28 at 2018 4:13 AM

2018-02-28T04:13:22-05:00

He could get the nod if he ran again, but with the mass retirements from those in his own party, I don't think he'd be reelected. You're not loosing the no name folks, at lot of powerful names. If the "blue wave" rides in this year, he's going to become the "lame duck" and unfortunately Pelosi and Schumer will have a field day on him if they get both chambers. Romney's running for a seat they should just give him being he has no real competition, and Romney's been a thorn in Trumps side awhile.
Gov Kasiech if he ran should get the GOP nod. He should've won last cycle. Hands down the best candidate in the GOP field. Not sure who's willing to run for the Dems. Too many names being thrown around as "thinking of running". At least there won't be a Clinton in this.

Response by SSgt Jim Gilmore made Feb 28 at 2018 5:21 AM

2018-02-28T05:21:42-05:00

Love him or hate him, Trump will more than likely be the candidate unless the GOP can find a really stellar replacement. Right now, they have no real rising stars and many of the current DC crowd are RINO has beens (McCain, McConnell, etc.). Given the every 2 year election cycle in the US getting longer and longer...to the point where we are in a constant elections mode, he would be foolish not to begin now. I know of only one sitting POTUS NOT renominated in my lifetime and that was LBJ...he opted not to run leaving the door ajar for Hubie the Booby.

Response by Cpl Jeff N. made Feb 28 at 2018 6:23 AM

2018-02-28T06:23:37-05:00

Nothing is guaranteed but if he plans on running again in 2020 then he might as well start early and get his team in place sooner rather than later. I don't think he will be primaried unless something unexpected happens. I don't see the Mueller probe doing anything so it is unlikely to happen.

Response by MSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 1 at 2018 10:32 AM

2018-03-01T10:32:59-05:00

Depends on what happens with this firearms thing. I won’t vote for him again if he backs the ban of certain firearms.

Response by Lt Col Scott Shuttleworth made Mar 1 at 2018 11:16 AM

2018-03-01T11:16:03-05:00

I think he will shoot for the nomination and I think he will get it. I also think he will get reelected if he does. I am not a 100% Trump fan with everything he does and I wish he would just shut down Twitter. However, he is fulfilling a lot of his campaign promises. Economy is up, unemployment is down, health care is in debate etc. All in one year. Is that all him, nit necessarily but it is like a commander at the helm of a unit...all the good/bad reflects on him/her.

I wish Condoleeza Rice would run...a lot of people don't care for her but I believe she would get elected if she ran.

Response by SPC Kevin Ford made Mar 1 at 2018 12:01 PM

2018-03-01T12:01:27-05:00

My answer is it is extremely likely unless he is going through an impeachment process or something similar.

Response by MAJ James Woods made Mar 1 at 2018 2:53 PM

2018-03-01T14:53:00-05:00

Yeah but polarized and controversial should not be the defining characteristics for a president.

Response by SN James MacKay made Mar 1 at 2018 3:48 PM

2018-03-01T15:48:06-05:00

It depends on the make up of the Congress. I think that in the unlikely chance that both houses flip, he'll be impeached, long before the election. Otherwise, yes. The incumbent almost always runs.

Response by MSG Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 1 at 2018 6:11 PM

2018-03-01T18:11:58-05:00

Pretty much guaranteed. Short of a health issue or major scandal, he will get the nomination.

Historically, it is very difficult to defeat an incumbent. It has only happened once and that was in 1852

Response by Maj Paul Driscoll made Mar 1 at 2018 7:35 PM

2018-03-01T19:35:29-05:00

Unless he resigns or is impeached, he will certainly be the nominee.

Response by COL Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 2 at 2018 12:10 AM

2018-03-02T00:10:26-05:00

Guaranteed as much as Hillary was guaranteed the presidency.