Do you feel that the GIRoA has a chance of successfully keeping the Taliban at bay once Coalition Forces leave?

2014-03-04T01:55:54-05:00

Do you feel that the GIRoA has a chance of successfully keeping the Taliban at bay once Coalition Forces leave? I'd especially like to hear from those who have trained, advised , and assisted the Afghans, but all responses are welcome.

Personally, I don't think they stand a chance at fighting them head on. Even with Coalition Forces' advanced ISRs, CAS, comms systems, and weaponry we still haven't managed to "win" the war. It will be interesting and in my opinion unfortunate to see what the Afghan military will be be able to do once we let go of their hand. Having worked with them, I know many have the will to fight the Taliban. I really just don't believe that they have the discipline, resources, or sustainable proficiency at basic tasks to survive. As much as I would like to see them successful, I foresee them striking deals with the Taliban for positions in GIROA and the military, pretty much giving up everything that was fought for over the past 13 years. If they decide to fight, I see their forces being not only degraded, but with defections included, I see their ranks dissipating almost completely. I believe it will once again return to a war between the Taliban, and tribal warlords who care about nothing but land and power. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised if 5-10 years from now we once again see the Taliban performing mass executions in Kabul Stadium.

Response by 1LT Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 4 at 2014 2:44 AM

2014-03-04T02:44:14-05:00

SSG Perry,

I think that GIRoA and the ANSF will be challenged significantly, but they have a fighting chance. Regardless of their capapbilities, I think their heart is in the right place. Casualties will continue to rise and there are certainly questions regarding their ability to maintain their force once the Coalition leaves, but we have done a lot to set them up for success.

A lot rests on the shoulders of whoever is elected this April and what can be agreed upon in the Bilateral Security Agreement. Its important that GIRoA authorizes a Coaltion Anti-Terrorism force to remain to assist with targeting, advising and direct-action execution of high value targets.

Response by CW2 Joseph Evans made Mar 4 at 2014 3:57 AM

2014-03-04T03:57:18-05:00

We pull out and the south will turn into a bloodbath. Any tribe related to anyone that challenges the Achakzai in the south will disappear to a man. Also, Karzai will stop getting his tribute from the southern drug lords. The Taliban won't come back, provided any of them are still alive, but we may not like the power struggle that occurs.

Response by MAJ Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 3 at 2014 12:18 PM

2014-09-03T12:18:23-04:00

Judging by the current condition of Iraq, and having been over in Afghanistan and seen the LN's training, I'd say no. They do not stand a decent chance of keeping the Taliban (or anyone else with arms and a strong will) at bay once CF leave.

The problem isn't so much equipment and training (both of which have been provided), but rather will to fight. Afghans are great scrappers, and many are absolutely fearless. However, they don't have much of a national identity, preferring to identify themselves by family and tribe. That makes it difficult for any national government to build a cohesive fighting force that will defend the country as a whole, rather than their own immediate area. This leads to a fragmented force, and will inevitably lead to defeat-in-detail by any large, organized force trying to sweep through the country.

Of course, it's been a few years since I was over there. I can hope that the situation has changed for the better.