Do you believe a military intervention is required in Ukraine?

2022-02-25T22:01:20-05:00

As an Intel analyst who has worked both the Russian and Chinese problem sets, the strategic implications by not getting involved in Ukraine will ultimately lead to further aggression around the world. We should have been in Ukraine the moment Russia crossed the border because now China knows we won’t intervene.

Response by MSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 25 at 2022 10:15 PM

2022-02-25T22:15:52-05:00

If the Coward Assclown currently in the White House and Obummer would have lived up to the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, then this would not have happened. But they allowed it to happen because that is what they do, cowards who break promises.

Response by LTC Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 25 at 2022 10:17 PM

2022-02-25T22:17:40-05:00

If the Ukraine doesn't get some help the will be a part of the new USSR

Response by PO2 Marco Monsalve made Feb 25 at 2022 10:24 PM

2022-02-25T22:24:17-05:00

As much as I hate to say it you might just be right. We've worked both those areas also and I'm convinced China is looking very closely at where lines will be drawn. Obama's failure in Syria and Trumps in Northern Iraq with the Kurds I believe gave Putin some solid intel with which to work. Now Biden has provided more weakness signals and Germany and Italy's reluctance to move on removing Russia from SWIFT (though earlier today Italy finally stated that they support Russia's removal from SWIFT) show their primary concern over economics. I posted a report a few minutes ago on ongoing activities & will add more as I receive them.

Response by SPC Steven Depuy made Feb 26 at 2022 12:43 AM

2022-02-26T00:43:39-05:00

If they had gone in 2 months ago, none of this would have happened. Saying before it starts we won’t go in just makes the aggressor say cool, let’s do this.

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 26 at 2022 2:45 AM

2022-02-26T02:45:16-05:00

I think we're making a grave error by staying out of Ukraine. Ukraine has huge strategic value in terms of resources like uranium, precious metals, and food production. Plus, Russia will just continue on to conquer another part of the old USSR.

Plus China has been encroaching into Taiwan more and more for the last year or two, constantly flying into Taiwan Air space. Just like Russia said that they don't recognize Ukraines right to sovereignty, China doesn't recognize Taiwan as a country either. They've made it clear that they will have Taiwan back eventually. Ukraine was a partner to the US and China can expect that whatever response that we give to Russia will parallel the response we give to China.

Russia has shown that sanctions don't work. They just trade with the second largest economy, China. Even if we aren't putting boots on ground we could be supplying air strikes, supplying anti armor weapons, and other support. But I think it's worth putting our people there to fight

Response by CPT Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 26 at 2022 10:13 AM

2022-02-26T10:13:30-05:00

I think it should also be looked at from the ambitions of ONE MAN. History is not filled with examples of long term totalitarian leaders playing nice and living in luxury through the end of their lives. Their apatite further drives them to extend past their borders.

At the very least Putin probably see this as his legacy opportunity to rekindle the influence of Russia and at best rebuild the entire USSR.

He's not stopping until blows have been exchanged by the west and NATO, and that those blows have militarily exhausted Russia's kinetic capabilities.

So the bigger question I think is, does the west push him out of Ukraine or constrain themselves to merely holing fast the NATO line ?

Will it evolve into a situation where the west and NATO feel Putin now needs to be removed?

Response by SFC Casey O'Mally made Feb 26 at 2022 1:56 PM

2022-02-26T13:56:35-05:00

I think Russia and China are two completely different problem sets, and trying to use one to predict the other is... problematic.

The relationship between Russia and the former soviet nations is completely different than the relationship between China and Taiwan, or China and other neighboring countries. Additionally, American opinion and views on Russia and China are different both at the "average Joe" level and the "strategic analysis" level.

IMO the American people would be much more willing to go to war with China than with Russia. The media message for the last decade or so (both the "leftist lame stream media" and the "extremist right faux news") has been that China is the big bad, and Russia is in decline. We have consistently been told that China steals our technology, our jobs, our intellectual property, our trading partners, and our babies. (OK maybe not that last one, but I am sure some folks think so.) Russia, on the other hand, we are told, is experiencing their death rattle, they are in severe decline, and just want to hold on as long as they can. Putin is playing the bully to hide his weakness.

Personally, I think China would like nothing more than for us to get into a shooting war with Russia. The bigger the better. Because, let's face it. If we get into a knock-down drag-out war with Russia, the odds are HEAVILY in our favor. If we get into the same with China, the odds are STILL in our favor. But if we try to engage in all out war with China AFTER finishing (or *as* we are finishing) an all out war with Russia, the odds shift, and significantly so. China would love for Russia and the US to exhaust themselves on each other so they can crush both of us afterwards.

For that reason, I still agree with NOT going in to help Ukraine, at least militarily. Doing so would weaken us and severely hamper our ability to react to aggression aimed directly at us. That being said, I do believe we should be providing non-military support - food, money, and intelligence - and some defensive capabilities, such as C-RAM, ADA, and materiel.

I also think this is a European fight, and our European partners *should* be stepping up to the plate. And we should be backstopping *them* with actual military support. So if, for instance, Poland sends 50% of their forces into Ukraine to help fight, we then send a division or two to Poland for their defense, so Putin can't just change targets and pick off our NATO allies as they commit their own defense forces to the Ukraine.

But I am no expert on this stuff. I'm just a lowly former intel guy who analyzes what date he does have available to him and tries to apply common sense and critical thinking. And as much as I may criticize the current (or former) POTUS for their action or inaction, I *do* have to admit that they have a far greater wealth of knowledge and experience to draw upon for these decisions, and they guaranteedly have more insight into the true tactical and strategic situation than I (or pretty much anyone else on RP) have.

Response by MSG Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 26 at 2022 2:41 PM

2022-02-26T14:41:10-05:00

I'm going to look at this in the light that WW2 was. We, as a Nation, said we were gonna stay neutral during the war but supplied weapons and equipment to the UK. DC was focusing too much on the front lawn and barely paying attention to the back yard fence. For 2 years the US managed to stay out of the fight until Japan decided to try and hit us with a knock out sucker punch. We all know what happened after that. We had to jump in and kick Germany and Japan out of a lot of territory.

This current situation could almost be seen in the same light. What is to stop Russia from hitting other countries? Hell, what's to stop China from smacking Taiwan?

We either need to be BOG in Ukraine or at the very least providing Air Cover and CAS. While at the same time, getting prepared for China to get froggy and jump

Response by MSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 26 at 2022 3:21 PM

2022-02-26T15:21:36-05:00

I believe the other NATO countries need to step up, especially the European countries. It’s time for them to actually commit to their own well being instead of relying on America. We could deploy troops to those countries that do deploy troops to Ukraine for protection of their borders from any idea of encroachment from Russia into their county. Russia should also be removed from NATO immediately for attacking a sovereign country. Putin has prepared for the sanctions so it will be a long while before they affect them. China is watching how we and NATO respond with an eye on their own prize being Taiwan. Whether or not they would actually go into Taiwan is a hard speculation. But I’m sure they are thinking about it. I do think drawing the line in the sand that we wouldn’t send troops to Ukraine was a mistake. We should have never laid all our cards on the table for Putin to see. Every option should have been available. Although I am personally reluctant that we commit troops to Ukraine. Really all we can do as Americans is pray for the Ukrainian people and hope that they provide a tough resistance for the Russian army.

Response by SP5 James Elmore made Feb 26 at 2022 7:02 PM

2022-02-26T19:02:12-05:00

I don't know and glad I'm not a decisionmaker on the matter. I see that Russia has threatened both Sweden and Finland because they are considering joining NATO. I understand not defending Ukraine but the moment Sweden and Finland say enough is enough and join NATO, that every second, we should defend them. We don't need the bullying Hitler and Stalin did at the onset of WWII; appeasement bought time, nothing more.

Response by MAJ Ron Peery made Feb 26 at 2022 9:02 PM

2022-02-26T21:02:00-05:00

The logical thing for us to do right now is to provide logistical support to Ukraine while rapidly increasing our combat power in Europe to Cold War levels.

Response by SPC Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 26 at 2022 10:25 PM

2022-02-26T22:25:54-05:00

I need to research a treaty/agreement we signed in the 90's with Russia, UK, and Ukraine before I can answer that. If we have an agreement saying we would, then yes we honor our word. If not, we did provide financial and physical aid, just no boots on ground. The question is, are we comfortable with Russia being back on NATO's porch?

I don't know, the right answer is somewhere out in left field and somebody mined the damn field.

Response by MSG Danny Mathers made Mar 1 at 2022 11:13 AM

2022-03-01T11:13:31-05:00

Nope. Give them all the weapons and gear they need.

Response by 2LT Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 25 at 2022 8:14 AM

2022-03-25T08:14:26-04:00

Negative. This has nothing to do with the US, NATO nor the West. Having studied the Soviet military for the past 40 years, growing up hating Russia, I am familiar with their tactics, their strengths and weaknesses. This current conflict is completely different. Putin, as much as we may like/dislike him is not attempting to take over Europe (as we feared
Since 1945) and not attempting to re-establish the Soviet Empire. Without those two motives, we have zero interest in this conflict. Period

Response by SP5 James Elmore made Apr 24 at 2022 11:01 PM

2022-04-24T23:01:11-04:00

Don't agree. We have no treaty to protect Ukraine. We do have the Taiwan Relations Act.

Our strategy seems to be working well of NATO and countries around the world supplying Ukraine with arms they can use to not just defend but drive Russia out. We certainly have found over decades that when the US steps in with troops, the countries tend to rely on those troops. How's that been working out for us. In this instance, we have a country willing to step up and die for their nation and rid their nation of Russia, which had lorded over them for at least a hundred years.

So far, our administrations have been willing to anger China and provide Taiwan with sophisticated aircraft and missiles. To abandon Taiwan, unless they want to join ROC, would cause every Pacific partner to question our resolve to defend them, which would lead to most if not all of them bending to China's will. Our freedom of Navigation risks military confrontation, and those voyages have continued through every administration.

No, we should not have jumped in this invasion, we should have supplied Ukraine as we are doing now with sophisticated weapons even before Crimea as Russia entered Donabas in 2014.

I appreciate that you are an intelligence analyst, but there has been a lot more going on for far longer time. Fairly arbitrary to now decide that this invasion date is when we should step in. And so many reasons we shouldn't. Looks like Ukraine is doing a fine job militarily with tremendous suffering and destruction of its country. And China should be very wary as it sees what technology is doing to a modern Army although admittedly using poor tactics and logistics. Would China be willing to risk so much death of its military and the people of Taiwan! Probably not.

That said, if the Russians use banned gas or tactical nukes, I would be in favor of NATO establishing a no fly zone of Russian aircraft over all of Ukraine...with maybe an exception for Crimea. And give Ukraine weapons to hit any missile site that attacks them.

Response by CW3 Dan Mackey made Apr 25 at 2022 3:42 PM

2022-04-25T15:42:08-04:00

Keep in mind any war with Russia or China will be a war here at home. Both those nations are more than capable of bringing the fight to our shores. I have seen more than enough combat to know what war does to a nation. Russia and China have military capabilities enough to bring the fight here with cruise missals, bombers naval power and man power.

Response by SSG James Knopp made Apr 28 at 2022 12:31 AM

2022-04-28T00:31:31-04:00

Most of my military career was focused on fighting Russia. At one period of time I was in an attack helicopter battalion and our focus was to destroy Russian tanks as they came through the Fulda Gap in Germany.
No one can convince me Putin is righteous in this unprovoked, unjust and illegal occupation and destruction of a sovereign country. I call this mad man “Putin the Punk”. He is nothing shy of a bully and Ukraine is going to kick his communist ass.
Putin has met David and he has just poked a hornets nest.
What is unfortunate is the number of body bags that will be sent back to Russia and the grieving mothers whom will have to bury their young soldiers.
What I have seen so far is if NATO and the United States end up joining the fight it’s game over for Russia. We would beat them like a dirty rug!