Posted on Aug 7, 2014
Anyone besides me wondering if it is a coincidence that Russia has been very agressive since Eric Snowden has sought asylum there?
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It seems that the Russians have been very good at estimating our responses to their actions on the world stage the past couple years. Anyone besides me wondering if former NSA employee Eric Snowden has been very helpful to this cause? Think about it:
1. President Obama gives a "red line" in Syria, a staunch Russian ally, regarding use of chemical weapons. Evidence mounts that Assad in fact used Chemical weapons in population centers and the course is towards conflict (albeit "unimaginably small"). Suddenly Russia swoops in and brokers a deal that defuses the crisis and lets Assad stay in power - not that I'm complaining, they did us a favor even if I doubt their motives were altruistic. Problem solved!
2. Russia gets increasingly aggressive in trade with Europe, particularly regarding natural gas shipment via pipeline (as if they can sell gas in a pipeline to another country to someone other than people adjacent to the pipe) in the middle of a harsh winter. They blinked eventually because the Norweigians stepped up to the plate - wouldn't want to break up the monopoly after all, but they were clearly gauging the vulnerability of Europe to resource blackmail.
3. The obvious one in Ukraine. The Russians suddenly acquire an interest in the "plight" of ethnic Russians - or in the case of Donetsk, Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Never mind Russians and Ukrainians have been living side by side for centuries, generally amicably with a few notable exceptions (the Tatars, less so). Of course it has nothing to do with the very large gas fields recently discovered with western concessions drilling test wells in the Black Sea off the coast... a development that threatened the Russian near-monopoly on gas sales to Eastern Europe.
They are playing a strategy not seen in Europe since the 40's, betting that the European States (correctly) don't have the guts to back up Ukraine and that the US won't get involved. If the Russians really wanted to adjust borders, why now? Why in this manner?
Note that this is not a comment on current US politics, but rather an observation that our mail seems to be getting read by the Russians. Thoughts?
1. President Obama gives a "red line" in Syria, a staunch Russian ally, regarding use of chemical weapons. Evidence mounts that Assad in fact used Chemical weapons in population centers and the course is towards conflict (albeit "unimaginably small"). Suddenly Russia swoops in and brokers a deal that defuses the crisis and lets Assad stay in power - not that I'm complaining, they did us a favor even if I doubt their motives were altruistic. Problem solved!
2. Russia gets increasingly aggressive in trade with Europe, particularly regarding natural gas shipment via pipeline (as if they can sell gas in a pipeline to another country to someone other than people adjacent to the pipe) in the middle of a harsh winter. They blinked eventually because the Norweigians stepped up to the plate - wouldn't want to break up the monopoly after all, but they were clearly gauging the vulnerability of Europe to resource blackmail.
3. The obvious one in Ukraine. The Russians suddenly acquire an interest in the "plight" of ethnic Russians - or in the case of Donetsk, Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Never mind Russians and Ukrainians have been living side by side for centuries, generally amicably with a few notable exceptions (the Tatars, less so). Of course it has nothing to do with the very large gas fields recently discovered with western concessions drilling test wells in the Black Sea off the coast... a development that threatened the Russian near-monopoly on gas sales to Eastern Europe.
They are playing a strategy not seen in Europe since the 40's, betting that the European States (correctly) don't have the guts to back up Ukraine and that the US won't get involved. If the Russians really wanted to adjust borders, why now? Why in this manner?
Note that this is not a comment on current US politics, but rather an observation that our mail seems to be getting read by the Russians. Thoughts?
Snowden
Europe
Edited 7 y ago
Posted >1 y ago
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1SG Jerry Healy
Of all the below comments your observations and the tie-in to Snowden are the most astute. Obamas' weakness, Russia's pipeline activity and the Russian movements in Ukraine. Overall, something (or someone) has emboldened Putin to the extent that we have to consider some Snowden influence. Now, Snowden's value to Putin could very well be the daily interpretation of Western newspaper articles and radio transmissions.
Thank You
Rick
Of all the below comments your observations and the tie-in to Snowden are the most astute. Obamas' weakness, Russia's pipeline activity and the Russian movements in Ukraine. Overall, something (or someone) has emboldened Putin to the extent that we have to consider some Snowden influence. Now, Snowden's value to Putin could very well be the daily interpretation of Western newspaper articles and radio transmissions.
Thank You
Rick
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I'm liking your thinking Top! Been a long time since we've had a good conspiracy theory running about.
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1SG (Join to see)
I'm not a big believer in coincidences. I don't think it was an accident Putin didn't do anything until after the Olympics either.
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Georgia. Not the state...the country. Happened well before Snowden. The US did nothing about it. The former Soviet Union states are still loose client states of Russia. Those reaching out to the west are threats to the stability of what Russia sees as it's sphere of influence. It would be like Cuba siding with the Russians and allowing them to put nuclear missiles there...oh wait...that already happened. We'd go full-retard, just like we did before. Now Russia has a much lower tollerance for a$$-grabbery in their client states than we do, so when they reach too far out and begin to balk at the party line coming from Russia, Russia reaches out and puts them back in their place...and no one has done a thing. It's like that scene from Team America where "Hans Brix" tells Kim Jong Ill that if he doesn't allow him to see the entire palace that the UN will, "Write you a letter telling you how angry we are." Russia has built a network of economic lines of communication that it cannot see disrupted by an idealistic state who wants to ceceed from an unofficial partnership. The Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Georgia, the Central Asian "Stans" (Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, etc, etc) may all be "independent," but they damn sure aren't free to make their own decisions about moving too far away from mother Russia. Got nothing to do with Snowden. Russia knows exaclty what kind of government we have. They know exactly what our reactions are going to be. If they weren't sure of them, they wouldn't be so bold. A pencil-thin, self important, douche-copter like Snowden is not going to empower or enlighten Putin...that man knows what he is doing and I am surprised he hasn't killed him "accidentally" in a wrestling match with a bear while he is fishing without a shirt on.
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1SG (Join to see)
Sir, you make a solid point, but I see the Georgian War as unrelated. Putin wasn't even President of Russia in 2008, when that war was fought. If I recall correctly, when Georgia seceded from the USSR in 1992, Abkhazia and South Ossetia were granted some autonomy after a brief struggle. Later in 2008, Georgia attempted to recapture central control of South Ossetia (e.g. they started it) and Russia laid the smack down after Georgian artillery killed some Russian peacekeepers. I remember very well the Georgian contingent hurriedly withdrawing from Iraq to go home and defend Tbilisi. It gave us all sorts of hell filling a Brigade-sized hole in our AOR.
You're right, Snowden had nothing to do with that one, but Georgia kicked the hornet's nest and got stung. That one was their own fault and miscalculation.
You're right, Snowden had nothing to do with that one, but Georgia kicked the hornet's nest and got stung. That one was their own fault and miscalculation.
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COL (Join to see)
I think we can see in hindsight a little more clearly now. Looking at how Ukraine went down, I think we'd be naïve if we thought South Ossetia was entirely free of Russian influence. Those Russian peace keepers are questionable in hindsight.
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