Posted on Jun 7, 2015
Do you think body counts are a good metric in defeating ISIL?
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Personally I remember the body count debacle in Viet Nam, I dot think that it is an effective metric. Your thoughts?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-04/why-body-counts-are-a-bad-metric-for-judging-islamic-state-fight
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-04/why-body-counts-are-a-bad-metric-for-judging-islamic-state-fight
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 10
Nope, not at all. They are recruiting from all over the world and are massing more everyday. You could kill 1,000 of them in one day and it wouldn't even phase them. The best metric that we could use is to assess them by how much land they control. The less land they control the smaller they are.
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No. People remember the "body count" of Vietnam and that it meant nothing; the war dragged on for 10 years. There's also the nagging suspicion that some of those killed were just poor local schmucks that were in the wrong place at the wrong time, or bribed or coerced into fighting for Daesch.
The best metric would be how much their movement is marginalized and unpopular. Dry up the sea of support in which these fish need to swim. Insurgencies work because the people are dissatisfied. The United States needs to let the locals handle it, and very quietly support some of the sides that are the least offensive to us, even if they may not be 100% buddy-buddy with us. For example, right now, if I was forced to choose between Iran and Daesch, I'd rather partner up with Iran even if I have to hold my nose to do it. The Ayatollah regime sucks, but they're better than the nihilistic crazies of Daesch.
Of course, Iran isn't the only option we have, I'm just picking one that illustrates some of the potential difficult decisions we may have to accept.
The best metric would be how much their movement is marginalized and unpopular. Dry up the sea of support in which these fish need to swim. Insurgencies work because the people are dissatisfied. The United States needs to let the locals handle it, and very quietly support some of the sides that are the least offensive to us, even if they may not be 100% buddy-buddy with us. For example, right now, if I was forced to choose between Iran and Daesch, I'd rather partner up with Iran even if I have to hold my nose to do it. The Ayatollah regime sucks, but they're better than the nihilistic crazies of Daesch.
Of course, Iran isn't the only option we have, I'm just picking one that illustrates some of the potential difficult decisions we may have to accept.
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Uh, yeah. 'Cuz body counts worked ssssooooooo well for us before......
No sir. Personally, I don't think body counts are a good metric for determining whether you are defeating an adversary.
I say that because statistics can be manipulated to prove/disprove anything. For example, suppose I say I eliminated 100% of the elephants from my property. Sounds good, right? What if I then tell you I never had any elephants to begin with.
Suppose I say a combat force of 20 personnel had eliminated 50 adversary fighters. Does that really matter if you are facing a force of 2000? 4000? 10000?
It's my belief we would be better off focusing on something more tangible. Something along the lines of the Village of Holtland held free and democratic elections one year ago. Those elected are still in power and overall unrest has decreased by 75%. I think that would be a much better indicator of how successful an operation is or has been.
No sir. Personally, I don't think body counts are a good metric for determining whether you are defeating an adversary.
I say that because statistics can be manipulated to prove/disprove anything. For example, suppose I say I eliminated 100% of the elephants from my property. Sounds good, right? What if I then tell you I never had any elephants to begin with.
Suppose I say a combat force of 20 personnel had eliminated 50 adversary fighters. Does that really matter if you are facing a force of 2000? 4000? 10000?
It's my belief we would be better off focusing on something more tangible. Something along the lines of the Village of Holtland held free and democratic elections one year ago. Those elected are still in power and overall unrest has decreased by 75%. I think that would be a much better indicator of how successful an operation is or has been.
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1LT William Clardy
Should I even mention the issue of what happens when you start defining "adversary fighter" as any male in the target area?
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