Posted on Mar 2, 2014
MSG Career Counselor
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What are your thoughts on the recent events in the Ukraine?  Is this the birth of a second Cold War?
Posted in these groups: 979a8ca4 Ukraine1ed105b8 Russia
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Responses: 11
LCpl Steve Wininger
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It is difficult to say. It sort of resembles the old cloak and dagger game that was played during the Cold War.

I have not followed this real close, perhaps I should. From what I have seen, I think he is testing the US and the rest of the world to see how far they can be pushed. Just an uneducated opinion.
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LCpl Steve Wininger
LCpl Steve Wininger
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So, is this the beginning of another cold war, or just a global game of cat and mouse?
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SSgt Michael Hacker
SSgt Michael Hacker
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Seems that will depend on how things are handled by the powers that be.
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LCpl Steve Wininger
LCpl Steve Wininger
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I know enough about history that the powers that be caused the first one. So what you are saying is, I need to learn Russian instead of Arabic.
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SSgt Michael Hacker
SSgt Michael Hacker
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Not necessarily. That said, I'm a language nerd, so I never try to convince anyone to not learn languages. :)
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LTC Program Manager
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The first question is whether or not it is in the National Interest of the US.  We are not the world's police force.  The only way we would be used as a police force is if was at the behest of the UN.  The second option is whether or not the rightful government asks us for support.  The third factor is whether or not the Russian government will take any action on the side of the rebels that would end up with us fighting the Russians.  Diplomacy is the best course of action right now.
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SGT Senior Warrior Liaison
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Sir,


 


I mostly aggree with your response sir, I would ask though, if a country such as our has the ability to help those less fortunate or less able wouldn't it be our responsibility to act? The USA would not exist today if we didn't get the support of a couple of european countries countries.

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CPT Public Affairs Officer
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Sir,

 

I agree. However, I do see both a national and strategic interest in the Ukraine as a sovereign nation when under threat by Russia.

 

We have a stake in the Ukrainian economy through our exports which they receive. This mess has also led to a push for the increase of the export of LNG to support the Ukraine and neighboring countries should this become a protracted event. I can not find the exact figures, but the blockage of this trade could have a significant economic impact leading to surplus product on the markets which can affect prices as well as jobs.

 

A lack of action (either politically or militarily) could present a permissive stance on Russian military action. It does not mean that it holds true, but the perception could bolster support for Russian incursions and also bolster their nationalist agenda which may motivate them to act much more aggressively in the future. I am not saying this as a claim for military intervention, but the internation and national response does need to be much stronger than what it is now, in my opinion. Economic sanctions, international agreements, and other diplomatic tools should be utilized in order to show the same international resolve that has been shown in the past.

 

I also think that the second and third order effects could have a dramatic impact on the destabilization of the global good. This move, if not reacted to appropriately, could help Russian allies such as Syria and Iran. This would present them with a known partner who is flexing its military might against an international community. It would permit Al-Assad to maintain a strong position against the rebels since it would show that international resolve to challenge Russia is low, since he already feels as if Russia would support him militarily against any external threats. It would also give Rouhani the chance to continue his left hand-right hand rhetoric, knowing that economically, politically, and militarily he has a strong ally.

 

I am not advocating immediate military action. I also think that a show of force in any manner (positions an aircraft carrier, staging troops nearby, etc) could create the opportunity for an incident to spark something major, which is not the correct answer either. However, I do see a need to step up the diplomatic involvment of an internationa coalition very similar to what happened when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. That may be the appropriate model to follow  on a protracted schedule.

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COL Civil Affairs Officer
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No one disputes that we should only take action when it suits our interests. That's not the difficult issue. The difficult issue here is ascertaining whether or not a particular crisis (in this case Ukraine) actually is in our national interest (or at least sufficiently so to justify further action).
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SPC Christopher Morehouse
SPC Christopher Morehouse
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There is a dimension to this issue that I don't believe is getting enough attention or scrutiny when it comes to "Should the US get involved in the events in Ukraine" that has to do with our credibility to our allies and the international community.  Specifically the Budapest Memorandum.  We agreed to respect the sovereignty and borders of Ukraine, in exchange for them giving up there 1000+ nuclear weapons.  We agreed to "consult" with the other signatories of this agreement if Ukraine’s sovereignty was violated, or political military or economic pressure was leveraged against them to with the goal of manipulating their government and politics. 


 


So I ask, how can any nation trust the spirit and letter of any agreement they go into with us, if it appears (as it does now) that we will not honor said agreement if it is deemed to inconvenient? 


 


Is Japan wondering right now if we will honor our defense agreement with them, should China attack?  Is South Korea going to have doubts about our commitment to them?  What about smaller allies where we don't actually have troops deployed?  Do you think our brand new set up governments in Iraq and Afgan are getting a little worried that we might leave them high and dry? 


There has been a lot of talk about Obama's "weakness" to the international community, and it makes it sound like we are looking for him to be some kind of bully, or to "police the world", but it is much more complicated and frankly IMPORTANT than that. 


His flip floppy, all words no action, hand waving and no commitment way of dealing with these international events is telling the world :"Do not trust the United States.  They honor their commitments at their convience alone.  A promise today is worth nothing tomorrow."

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SFC S1 Personnel Ncoic
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I don't believe the Cold War truly ended.  The breakup of the USSR and the decline of Russia was a temporary setback, in my opinion.  They lacked strong leadership, Putin has this in spades.  Russia has been growing in strength for years and has demonstrated their lack of concern of our saber rattling in Georgia and now the Ukraine.  As bad as this may sound I actually think this is a good thing.  A strong Russia gives the Chinese something to think about and also helps in combating terrorism.  Time and time again Russia has demonstrated they have no issue with taking the gloves off (not that they were ever on) in dealing with terrorism.     
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