Would good LORs and NCOERs be enough to offset an AFS waiver (10 years AFS) for 153A board?

I just got selected with over 12 years AFS time. The only way to find out is try. The greatest saying I’ve ever heard was “if you go empty handed and leave empty handed then you really haven’t lost anything”. If it’s something you really want try and if you don’t succeed then keep trying. Ensure your packet is perfect all T’s crossed and I’s doted. The packet reflects you!!!

With the current shortage on WOs and a strong, documented leadership background through the evals, I would think you have a fighting chance

When it comes to waivers I would say what matters most is how badly they need to fill those slots. The Army has been short on pilots for years so they are less likely to be picky. I had a Ranger in my WOCS class who was 10 or 13 years in picked up for 153A.