How long could the Berlin Brigade have held out if the Soviets had attacked?

Not long. The real reason they are there is for a similar reason the 2ID sits in front of the Chorwon Valley, to ensure a war with the US is triggered if they attack with associated US public support. It is a heck of a deterrent.

Are you sure you want a huge war with the US? Are you really sure, because guaranteed that's what's going to happen if you attack here.

I think they would have been a speed bump.

Remember that estimates and guestimates and best planning are based on pre-Berlin Wall falling. Post fall of the wall, we know a ton of stuff that we kinda suspected. MI-6 and MI-5 were pretty much 99 [login to see] 9% right-on-the-money with their "estimates."

1. Solidarnosk - Poland never truly recovered from the "uprising" and the Russians denuded a lot of the area due to trust issues. As a result, the East German garrisons fielded the best gear. Poland will be a staging area but will not be trusted to perform a major role. This requires extra security/KGB forces.

2. East Germany - receiving the lion's share of training and gear the DDR was the cream of the crop of WARPACT forces. However, when the USN bombed Syria in 1983 and Libya in 1986, several key pieces of Soviet AAW tech failed. Or maybe 'we' invented a suitable jam for it? Hard to say. DDR then noted that their role was still the same even tho they had weakened gear. Being made up of mostly wasteful Russian-front veterans, even the dumbest among them could read the writing on the wall. Spy-talk tells of a sudden "turn to the left" should the order to cross the border be given.

3. USN - everything we had up to that time, worked like it was supposed to work. Hornet is now on Med-based carriers and bases and all subs have sub-launched Tomahawk and Harpoon missiles. Tons of subs in the Med and close by. The Tomahawks "could be" the BGM-109 bomblet variety with an anti vehicle, airfield use. Others could be the cratering heavy warhead variety. Sixth Fleet has two carriers and Atlantic Fleet has two active with two in refit/repair. Indian Ocean Fleet's carriers operate close enough to jump the border if needed. Each carrier during 80's Cold War has 86-90 aircraft. The USN up until early 1989 has had several Alpha-Strike moments. Each one "doing what it was intended to do." Operations El Dorado Canyon, Prairie Fire, Prairie Fire II, etc. Russian stuff in the hands of others, is being destroyed "at-will" with little impact to the USN.

4. RAF - Tornado and Jaguar in Desert Storm performed as intended. RAF shelters also perform as intended. Once the ball drops, the RAF will do it's well rehearsed kamikaze raid and take out as many formation toys as it can. Soviet radar in Soviet hands will do no better than Soviet radar in Iraqi hands. They will shoot down the RAF (like Iraq does) but after the bombing has already happened. Shooting down the bomber AFTER he bombs you is counter productive...

5. USAFE - virtually all AWACS and tanker assets the USAF owns have a hotel room in Europe. Additionally, one of the USAF's biggest bomb dumps is in the UK (RAF Scunthorpe). Bases in Spain, Netherlands and Italy are always on hair-trigger alert to back up the pre-meditated fall of the German bases. Once the RAF sorties, the USAFE will be free'd from any "mother-may-I" conditions and will start doing what it rehearsed daily: control of the air. Within minutes, F-15's and F-16's will be "directing traffic" over the Fulda Gap. F-111's and F-15E's will join the RAF Tornado's in surgical killing of Soviet comms and infrastructure. Laser works. As does jamming.

6. USA/USMC - the troops performed the way they were supposed to during Desert Storm so there is no need to assume that their performance would be any less spectacular. TOW is the killer it is advertised to be and the 25mm chain gun mounted on the Apache and Bradley is actually a lot more killerific than previously thought. Also, the US Army and Marine's penchant for charging outnumbered into Iraqi positions was rehearsed from Soviet attack planning. So the American man-on-the-ground will not buckle/waver over being outnumbered by a Soviet blitzkrieg. MLRS and M-109 are more devastating than imagined. And also against Soviet trained/equipped forces.

7. British Army Of The Rhine/French Berlin Forces. Well...the fact is that the British and French Army saw successful combat during Desert Storm. So the only small niggle will be the marching orders. Do the Brits/French fall under West German command when the whistle blows or do they make their way to safety as they see fit? This aspect of "Berlin" was never rehearsed publicly. Regular British Army stuff on West German ground would do what NATO planning accounted for.

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Whistle blows - WarPac attacks. Note that Berlin is actually in East Germany. So will there be "bombing" and "arty strikes?" Counter productive, right? Also, DDR will know that it is the "start line" and therefore "it" will be the rock upon which the NATO wave crashes itself. Peter Wright in Spycatcher and others feel that only the die-hard zealots will head West. The majority - possibly half to two thirds - of the East German armor/infantry will deliberately stall/peter out. Should this happen, NATO air heading for Soviet throats gets to the Soviet throat quicker. Even barring a neutral loving Italy telling the Soviets "they may not join in" it will be brutal for the Soviets within the hour. If the East Germans do not falter, then it will be Easting 72 all over again as they travel down well sited roads and areas. West Germany has minefields and arty of its own.

2nd hour - NATO (USAFE) air superiority over the battle area. Should Moscow understand this, it will then contemplate whether to leave Europe to its own devices or replace losses from Frontal Aviation stocks. Once planes start sorties from Russia proper, the motherland then opens itself up to strikes from two inbound USN alpha strikes which it already knows it can't beat. Should Russia stay put, then NATO owns the air.

3rd hour - keeping American, British and French tank scores what they are, where would the Warsaw Pact Forces be? Germany did not take part in Desert Storm so we don't have a 1989/1990 quotient for them. We assume they will fight to the death and at least take one tank with them for every Leopard killed, but we have no data.

At this point, giving NATO a historical accuracy that it had during Desert Storm, here's what we have: no RAF in Europe left. No Russian command infrastructure, radar or initiative. Limited East German. As the Russians were eerily the first to cave in when the Berlin Wall fell, we have to give them that point. This would leave all of Poland and most of East Germany alone wondering where to go. West German and NATO psyops would be quick to let the Warpackers know they are alone and Poland sealing off East Germany's butt would be all but guaranteed.

Any Russian forces would be separated and picked off as advertised. East German forces would be separated in the hope that they seek a settlement. Peter Wright (and others) reckon a silent movement over to freedom's side, by the DDR component. As the DDR are really the best shots, best this, best that, the Russian component will sadly fall to pieces in death.

It would take 24 hours using comms of the day to settle everything and get the Russians to agree to leave Europe. Keep in mind that the Russian reasoning for this is Europe only. Not to start a world war we would hope. Also keep in mind that the USN and RN together have 200 subs with nothing better to do than sink Soviet ships. At least 100 of them would be in/around/near Europe when the ball drops. Soviet ships would be unable to supply their efforts and USAFE air superiority keeps Frontal Aviation out of the battle. Should the Russians decide to go whole hog and support the invasion of West Germany with Russian-based air, they would fare little better as (a) we're bombing their bases and (b) their infrastructure wasn't/isn't that great to begin with. We don't know that in 1989, but they do...